Tag Archives: economy

Nigeria’s GDP grows in 1st quarter 2020

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2020.

This revelation was made by the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS) on Monday while announcing the ‘Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product’ report for first quarter 2020 .

The reported growth can in the midst of significant global disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 public health crisis, a sharp fall in oil prices, and restricted international trade.

The Q1 2020 growth represents a drop of –0.23 per cent points compared to Q1 2019 and –0.68 per cent points compared to Q4 2019. This are indication of the effects of the global disruption, particularly on the non-oil economy.

Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was –14.27 per cent compared to 5.59 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

In terms of quantities, the aggregate GDP stood at N35.64m in nominal terms of Q1 2020.

This performance was higher when compared to the first quarter of 2019 which recorded N31.82m, with a nominal growth rate of 12.01 per cent year on year.

Relative to the first quarter of 2019, the nominal growth rate was higher by 0.11 per cent points but lower than the proceeding quarter by –0.32 per cent points.

‘Nigeria’s GDP Might Shrink’ Minister Warns

Finance, Budget and National Planning Minister, Hajia Zainab Ahmed has warned that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP), might shrink this year to -8.94 per cent unless there is economic stimulus.

Speaking with State House Correspondents after the FEC meeting, Mrs Ahmed, said with 40 per cent of Nigeria’s population classified as poor, the looming economic crisis would worsen their misery.

According to her, the global economy would also be dealing with the sharpest reversal since the Great Depression, as a result of the health crisis.

She added that the projected oil and gas revenue for the country, in the first quarter of 2020 suffered a 31% shortfall, representing about N125.52 billion.

“It is not news any more that these are very difficult and challenging times. We are facing a very significant economic downturn; a time that we have not seen in the history of our country.

“On the economy, COVID-19 has resulted in the collapse in oil prices. This will impact negatively, and the impact has already started showing on the federation’s revenues and on the foreign exchange earnings.

“Net oil and gas revenue and influx to the federation account in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to N940.91billion. This represented a shortfall of N125. 52billion or 31% of the prorated amount that is supposed to have been realized by the end of that first quarter.

“The economic growth in Nigeria, that is the GDP, could in the worst case scenario, contract by as much as –8.94% in 2020.

“But, in the best case, which is the case we are working on, it could be a contraction of –4.4%, if there is no fiscal stimulus. But with the fiscal stimulus plan that we are working on, this contraction can be mitigated and we might end up with a negative –0.59%”, she said.

“The Federal Government is committed to supporting the financial viability of states, including the suspension of payments in respect of commitments, debts that have been secured with ISPOs by the states at the federal levels.

“So, we have already implemented suspension of deductions of a number of loans that have been taken by the states from April and also in May.

“The Economic Sustainability Committee is responsible for providing overall strategic vision, policy direction and general oversight of the implementation amongst others”, she said.

Mrs. Ahmed assorted that the World Bank view is that the impact of the COVID-19 on Nigeria will lead to severe amplified human and economic cost, which will move the country into a recession.

“The World Bank planned a proposed package for immediate fiscal relief for the federal government. This will also involve policy-based policy budget support for the FG, focusing on measures to maintain macro financial stability and create fiscal space for proposed stimulus.

“The World Bank package has also got a proposal of $1.5billion for the states and this package will be dedicated to the states. And it will be a programme for results which the states are already used to implementing.

“So, the immediate fiscal relief for the states, as stated in the presentation, will include the acceleration of an existing programme to enable disbursement by end of September.

“So, the proposed $1.5billion plan will by end of September it would have been disbursed to the states. We are looking at an average of between N150billion to N200billion based on the plan to the 36 states. These are states that have already made some particular commitments and achievements so that they will be able to get immediate disbursements of parts of these funds”, she said.

Giving details of the balances in the various national accounts, the Minister disclosed “in the Excess Crude Account, as at 21 of May, 2020, we reported a balance $72.04 million.

BREAKING: Nigeria will definitely go into recession – Finance Minister

The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS)’s new assessment shows that Nigeria’s economy may not escape a recession at an average of -4.4 per cent, the finance minister, Zainab Ahmed, has said.

The Minister for Finance made this known while addressing journalists after the National Economic Council(NEC) meeting on Thursday.

“The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has made an assessment. So, it is the NBS assessment that Nigeria will go into a recession measuring at an average of -4.4%.

“But with the work that the Economic Accessibility Committee is doing bringing stimulus packages, we believe that we can reduce the impact of that recession.

“And if we applied all that have been proposed and we are able to implement it we may end up with a recession that is -0.4 per cent. In any case, we will go into recession but what we are trying to do is to make sure that it is shallow so that we will quickly come out of it come 2021,” Mrs Ahmed said.

A country’s economy goes into recession when its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reduces for two consecutive quarters.

Nigeria’s GDP figure for the first quarter of 2020 is yet to be released.

Mrs Ahmed’s statement suggests Nigeria’s GDP would reduce for the first quarter of 2020 and reduce further for the second quarter, indicating an official recession.

Nigeria is one of the countries hardest hit by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

A large part of its budget is funded by oil revenue which makes up over 90 per cent of its export. The sharp drop in oil prices globally has meant reduced income for the West African country.

Nigeria’s Economy up by 1.93% in 2018

Photo Credit: TheCable

The nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.93% in 2018, data made available by the National Bureau of Statistics has shown, TheCable Reports.

According to the report, which was released by the bureau on Tuesday, the fourth quarter GDP grew by 2.38% as against the 1.81% recorded in the third quarter.

The figure is 1.6 percentage points less than the 3.0% projected by the federal government in the 2019-2021 medium-term expenditure framework and fiscal strategy paper (MTEF).

However, the figure aligns with the projection of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund, which had projected that the economy will grow by 1.9% in 2018.

Both Bretton Wood institutions had cut Nigeria’s growth projections to 1.9% from 2.1%; with the World Bank blaming the herder-farmer crisis.

The non-oil sector recorded an annual growth rate of 2%, higher than the 0.47% recorded in 2017.

“The non-oil sector grew by 2.70% in real terms during the fourth quarter of 2018. This is 1.25% points higher than the growth rate recorded in Q4 2017, and 0.38% points higher than the growth rate recorded in Q3 2018,” the report read.

“The oil sector recorded a real GDP growth rate of –1.62% (year-on-year) in Q4 2018, indicating a decline of –12.81% points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017. However, when compared to Q3 2018, growth increased by 1.29% points.

“On an annual basis, real GDP growth for the oil sector stood at 1.14% as against 4.69% recorded in 2017.

“In the fourth quarter of 2018, average daily oil production stood at 1.91 million barrels per day (mbpd). This was lower than the 1.95 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017, and 1.94mbpd in Q3 2018.”

Nigeria’s Economy up by 1.93% in 2018

Photo Credit: TheCable

The nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.93% in 2018, data made available by the National Bureau of Statistics has shown, TheCable Reports.

According to the report, which was released by the bureau on Tuesday, the fourth quarter GDP grew by 2.38% as against the 1.81% recorded in the third quarter.

The figure is 1.6 percentage points less than the 3.0% projected by the federal government in the 2019-2021 medium-term expenditure framework and fiscal strategy paper (MTEF).

However, the figure aligns with the projection of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund, which had projected that the economy will grow by 1.9% in 2018.

Both Bretton Wood institutions had cut Nigeria’s growth projections to 1.9% from 2.1%; with the World Bank blaming the herder-farmer crisis.

The non-oil sector recorded an annual growth rate of 2%, higher than the 0.47% recorded in 2017.

“The non-oil sector grew by 2.70% in real terms during the fourth quarter of 2018. This is 1.25% points higher than the growth rate recorded in Q4 2017, and 0.38% points higher than the growth rate recorded in Q3 2018,” the report read.

“The oil sector recorded a real GDP growth rate of –1.62% (year-on-year) in Q4 2018, indicating a decline of –12.81% points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017. However, when compared to Q3 2018, growth increased by 1.29% points.

“On an annual basis, real GDP growth for the oil sector stood at 1.14% as against 4.69% recorded in 2017.

“In the fourth quarter of 2018, average daily oil production stood at 1.91 million barrels per day (mbpd). This was lower than the 1.95 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017, and 1.94mbpd in Q3 2018.”

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